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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2015-08-14T09:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-08-14T09:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9104/-1
CME Note: Filament eruption, below AR 2399. CME may have arrived late on 19 Aug, however this is unclear.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-08-19T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2015 Aug 14 2023 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
The partial halo CME, first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 09:36 UT today, was associated with the filament eruption from the south-west quadrant. The CME had the angular width of about 190 degrees and the projected plane of the sky speed of about 300 km/s (as reported by CACTUS software package).  
The bulk of the CME mass was directed southward of the Sun-Earth line and it is therefore not very probable that this CME will arrive at the Earth. The possible arrival of a CME-driven shock wave might be expected late on August 19 or early morning of August 20, producing at most unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
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Lead Time: 58.05 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-08-17T01:57Z

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